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  1. PO
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    <p>Well, if you are into math a little, you can probably try <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Exponential distribution</a></p> <p>For example, if lambda = 0.5, expected value is 2 (go read that article!), means you will most probably hit/crit/whatever every 2nd turn (like 50%, huh?). But with such probability distribution, you will definetevely miss (or do opposite to whatever) at 0th turn (the one, in which event had already occured and turn_counter had been reseted), have like 40% chance to hit next turn, about 65% chance to do it 2nd (next after next) turn, about 80% to hit 3rd and so on.</p> <p>The whole purpose of that distribution is if one has 50% hit chance and he misses 3 times in a row, he wil shurely (well, over 80% chance, and it increases every next turn) hit. It leads to more "fair" results, keeping overal 50% chance unchanged.</p> <p>Taking your 20% chance of crit, you have</p> <ul> <li>17% to crit 1st turn</li> <li>32% to crit 2nd turn, if no crit occures in all previous ones.</li> <li>45% to crit 3rd turn, if no crit occures in all previous ones.</li> <li>54% to crit 4th turn, if no crit occures in all previous ones.</li> <li>...</li> <li>80% to crit 8th turn, if no crit occures in all previous ones.</li> </ul> <p>Its still about 0.2% (vs those 5%) chance of 3 crits + 2 non-crits in 5 consequent turns. And there is 14% chance of 4 consequent non-crits, 5% of 5, 1.5% for 6, 0.3% for 7, 0.07% for 8 consequent non-crits. I bet its "more fair" than 41%, 32%, 26%,21% and 16%.</p> <p>Hope you still don't bored to death.</p>
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    1. PONeed for predictable random generator
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    1. COthis is pretty similar to my solution, except that it only "remembers" the time since the last critical hit. Under this solution, a string of 4 critical hits is the same as a string of 1 critical hit as far as probabilities about the future. So, if critical hits are good, this solution limits your downside risk, but not your upside. My solution affects both.
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      1. USNeil G
    2. COIt's obvious that different solutions have their own benefits. This one focuses on keeping randomness clean from science point of view. It doesn't mean, that its somehow better, than shuffle bag or anything else. It's just a solution that seems worth of trying.
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